September 2025 Market Update

Market Update

All the market indices closed higher than the beginning of the month.
- - The S&P 500 finished at 6,688.46 pts (3.53%)
  - The DOW finished at 46,397.89 pts (1.87%)
  - The NASDAQ finished at 22,660.01 pts (5.61%)
  - The TSX finished at 30,022.81 pts (5.11%)

Canada

Monetary Policy

On September 17^th, The Bank of Canada (“BoC”) decided to lower the overnight lending rate by 25bps.
- Currently, the overnight rate is 2.50%, the Bank Rate is at 2.75%, and the deposit rate is at 2.45%.
- “With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity.”
- The next interest rate announcement will take place on October 29^th, 2025.

Economic Data

Canada’s economy lost 65,500 jobs in August, which was its second consecutive decline after losing 40,800 jobs in July.
The unemployment rate in Canada rose 0.2 percentage points to 7.1% in August 2025, the highest level in four years, above market expectations of 7% and higher than the 6.9% recorded in July.
Canada’s economy expanded by 0.2% in July, just above the 0.1% increase expected by economists. This puts the economy on track to avoid a technical recession after contracting in the second quarter of 2025.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7% increase in July.

U.S.

Monetary Policy

The Fed decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps in its June meeting.
- The target range for the federal funds rate is 4.00-4.25%.
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.”
The next Fed meeting will take place on October 28^th– 29^th.

Economic Data

The annual inflation rate in the U.S. rose to 2.9% in August. This rate matched economists’ expectations.
- Core inflation remained at 3.1% in August, also matching expectations.
The U.S. Unemployment rate increased to 4.9% in August.
- The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of expectations and the previous month’s 79,000 jobs. Recent data is showing that job growth has stalled.
Despite poor job data, the U.S. economy expanded an annualized 3.8% in Q2 2025, much higher than 3.3% in the second estimate.
- This marks the strongest performance since Q3 2023.

Global

The European Central Bank (“ECB”) held its policy interest rates steady at its September meeting, as was widely expected.
- This marked the second straight rate hold by Europe’s central bank as it continues to take a wait-and-see approach to the economy, and as inflation appears to be largely contained.
Retail sales in China grew by 3.4% year-over-year in August compared to 3.7% in the previous month, which was below economists’ expectations.

Notes From our Firm

A recent CTV News article (click here) detailed a case where the CRA issued a $660,000 tax bill to an estate.
- With proper financial and estate, including strategies like life insurance and principal residence designations, the tax burden could have been greatly reduced.
- As the largest intergenerational wealth transfer unfolds, proactive planning is becoming more essential than ever.
Our team specializes in minimizing estate tax impacts – contact us to ensure your estate is structured efficiently.

As always if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to us. Or, if you know someone who would like an opinion on their investments or insurance, please connect us! There is no better compliment than a referral from one of our current clients.Hello valued clients,

Below, you will find our monthly market update and relative information that pertains to the current state of the economy.

Market Update

All the market indices closed higher than the beginning of the month.
- - The S&P 500 finished at 6,688.46 pts (3.53%)
  - The DOW finished at 46,397.89 pts (1.87%)
  - The NASDAQ finished at 22,660.01 pts (5.61%)
  - The TSX finished at 30,022.81 pts (5.11%)

Canada

Monetary Policy

On September 17^th, The Bank of Canada (“BoC”) decided to lower the overnight lending rate by 25bps.
- Currently, the overnight rate is 2.50%, the Bank Rate is at 2.75%, and the deposit rate is at 2.45%.
- “With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks. Looking ahead, the disruptive effects of shifts in trade will continue to add costs even as they weigh on economic activity.”
- The next interest rate announcement will take place on October 29^th, 2025.

Economic Data

Canada’s economy lost 65,500 jobs in August, which was its second consecutive decline after losing 40,800 jobs in July.
The unemployment rate in Canada rose 0.2 percentage points to 7.1% in August 2025, the highest level in four years, above market expectations of 7% and higher than the 6.9% recorded in July.
Canada’s economy expanded by 0.2% in July, just above the 0.1% increase expected by economists. This puts the economy on track to avoid a technical recession after contracting in the second quarter of 2025.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in August, up from a 1.7% increase in July.

U.S.

Monetary Policy

The Fed decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps in its June meeting.
- The target range for the federal funds rate is 4.00-4.25%.
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.”
The next Fed meeting will take place on October 28^th– 29^th.

Economic Data

The annual inflation rate in the U.S. rose to 2.9% in August. This rate matched economists’ expectations.
- Core inflation remained at 3.1% in August, also matching expectations.
The U.S. Unemployment rate increased to 4.9% in August.
- The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of expectations and the previous month’s 79,000 jobs. Recent data is showing that job growth has stalled.
Despite poor job data, the U.S. economy expanded an annualized 3.8% in Q2 2025, much higher than 3.3% in the second estimate.
- This marks the strongest performance since Q3 2023.

Global

The European Central Bank (“ECB”) held its policy interest rates steady at its September meeting, as was widely expected.
- This marked the second straight rate hold by Europe’s central bank as it continues to take a wait-and-see approach to the economy, and as inflation appears to be largely contained.
Retail sales in China grew by 3.4% year-over-year in August compared to 3.7% in the previous month, which was below economists’ expectations.

Notes From our Firm

A recent CTV News article (click here) detailed a case where the CRA issued a $660,000 tax bill to an estate.
- With proper financial and estate planning, including strategies like life insurance and principal residence designations, the tax burden could have been greatly reduced.
- As the largest intergenerational wealth transfer unfolds, proactive planning is becoming more essential than ever.
Our team specializes in minimizing estate tax impacts – contact us to ensure your estate is structured efficiently.